Resilient companies expect the unexpected and to be disrupted. Businesses use narratives and story telling everyday to underline their cultures and project certainty about where they wish to go to shareholders and employees. Those same tools can be used to map and manage the uncertainties of the world in which we operate using scenarios.
"Businesses must project certainty, and must investigate uncertainty objectively to not be its victim"
A scenario paints a story of a possible future, identifying important events and the organisations and people involved and their motivations, describing how that world would function. Exploring potential futures and how their likely challenges might evolve can contribute to your strategic thinking and complement conventional thinking.
"Conventional thinking is complemented by systematic discovery of future drivers of performance, their uncertainty and how critical they are to you"
Scenarios are based on intuition and experience framed in an systematic discovery process which identifies your assumptions, future drivers of performance, their uncertainty and how critical they are. These potential futures are written as if they are the present. There is no "correct" result from this process. A number of scenarios are constructed which systematically alter uncertain or critical factors that concern decision-makers. Commercial factors might range from regulatory and economic change to disruptive technologies and new competitors. Wider factors might include trade disruption, social change or terrorist attacks.
"Mapping plausible internal or external change goes beyond forecasting single outcomes, informing your choices in the face of commercial, regulatory, political, social, technological or even military risks"
Scenarios are not predictions, nor do they define your response. They also should not limit themselves to predictable scenarios and should consider other plausible contexts. Your scenarios can shape strategic dialogue and reconcile contradictions, allowing your company to explore future uncertainties and make more profitable choices.
See also: Mergers & Acquisitions, Restructures, Business Process, ERP & CRM, People & Culture, Capital, Property & Divestures, Knowledge Management, Law - Domestic & Crossborder, Training, Risk - Financial, Property, Energy, Weather